Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
